气象科学“内卷”了吗?     

贾朋群 《气象科学进展》2021,(1)

新中国气象科学经过70年的快速发展,已经触摸到了世界前沿。从20世纪中叶开始的长时间“跟跑”和中国具有世界上最高、尺度最大的地形等带来的气象预报复杂性问题,或许在21世纪20年代到来时,“内卷”带来的挑战会更严峻:在全球气象进入“准停滞期”等待突破时,我们还很少有领跑的机会和经验。  相似文献   

基于激光雨滴谱的双偏振雷达定量降水估测算法应用评估     

曾广宇  郭泽勇  周钦强  张弘豪  陈星登  郭佳 《气象研究与应用》2021,42(4):95-100

基于S波段双线偏振雷达资料、雨量计资料及激光雨滴谱数据,在CSU-ICE算法的基础上建立了CSU-LPA算法.以华南地区一次季风暴雨过程为评估对象,对CSU-LPA算法与传统PPS (Precipitation Processing System)算法进行了效果对比,评估该算法在业务中的应用效果.结果 表明,在绝对值相对误差指标上,CSU-LPA算法相对于PPS算法其估测误差减小了约16％;PPS算法在过程累计估测降水分布中存在几个区域的显著高估,且估测散点值分布离散,而CSU-LPA算法的估测结果与实况吻合度较高,估测散点值分布集中,说明新算法稳定性良好;单站小时累计估测降水中,CSU-LPA算法能有效抑制PPS算法的高估效应,尤其在累计雨量较大的时候体现得更为明显.  相似文献   

2021年6-9月广西异常高温成因分析     

赖晟  陈思蓉  陆甲  陆虹 《气象研究与应用》2021,42(4):111-117

2021年6-9月广西经历了1951年以来最高的月平均气温,大范围高温天气频发.利用1961-2021年广西国家地面气象观测站日平均气温和日最高气温观测资料、1991-2021年ERA5再分析资料和西太平洋副热带高压指数资料,对此次广西异常高温的特征和成因进行了研究分析.结果 表明,气候变暖是导致此次高温事件的重要气候背景,西太平洋副热带高压异常偏强位置偏西偏北、中纬度西风带扰动影响偏北以及热带气旋影响偏弱是造成广西气温异常偏高的主要原因.  相似文献   

智能网格能见度实况融合格点分析产品在一次大雾天气过程中的评估     

龙柯吉  宋雯雯  黄晓龙 《气象研究与应用》2021,42(4):50-55

采用邻近插值和双线性插值方法,将国家气象信息中心研发的能见度实况融合格点分析产品插值到四川省156个国家级考核站,选取2018年11月25日四川盆地一次大雾天气过程,对其在四川盆地的适用性进行评估.结果 表明,该产品误差普遍在5km范围内,随着海拔的增加,逐渐由低估转为高估;分级检验为:30km以上能见度的误差最大,随着能见度的下降,误差也逐渐下降.大雾过程中,产品能监测低能见度天气,表现出落区的变化,能见度在30km以上时,格点实况以高估为主,30km以下时随着能见度的降低,格点实况从低估逐渐转为高估.  相似文献   

Soil column infiltration tests on biomediated capillary barrier systems for mitigating rainfall-induced landslides     

Sheng Hua Tan  Shi Wei Wong  Du Jia Chin  Min Lee Lee  Ying Hui Ong  Siaw Yah Chong  Azman Kassim 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(16):589

Rainfall-induced landslide is a common geohazard in tropical and humid regions. Capillary barrier system (CBS) is a popular and widely studied mitigating measure for rainfall-induced landslides. However, several previous studies have shown that the performance of the conventional CBS under intense rainfalls has not been particularly convincing. This paper aims to explore the feasibility and effectiveness of a newly proposed system, known as “biomediated capillary barrier system” (B-CBS) in minimizing water infiltration into soil. A one-dimensional soil column was used to investigate the infiltration characteristics of the proposed system. The results showed that the B-CBS of biomediated residual soil overlying original residual soil (Test IV) could effectively control the infiltration into soil by taking advantage of the less-permeable biomediated soil cover. The B-CBS of biomediated residual soil overlying gravelly sand (Test V) and the three-layered B-CBS of fine sand overlying gravelly sand and biomediated residual soil (Test VI) showed the best performance in terms of minimizing the water infiltration. A suction of about 5 kPa still remained in the soil column after 60 min of infiltration from the ponded water on the soil surface.  相似文献   

Mechanical behavior and micro-structure of cement kiln dust-stabilized expensive soil     

Su Li Cui  Jia Ding Wang  Xiao Dong Wang  Yan Feng Du  Xue Pan Wang 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(17):521

In this study, the effects of cement kiln dust (CKD) on the swelling properties, strength properties, and microstructures of CKD-stabilized expansive soil were investigated. Samples were prepared and stabilized with different CKD content ratios, ranging from 0 to 18% by dry mass. The results obtained show that the maximum swelling pressures decrease exponentially with increases in CKD content. Both the cohesion and unconfined compressive strength (UCS) increase at ratios below 10% CKD and then decrease slightly, above that ratio. CKD can also improve the strength of saturated, expansive soil. There is no visible change of UCS for soil without CKD when cured, while the UCS of a sample with 10% CKD content after curing for 90 days is higher than that after curing for only 1 day. This indicates that CKD can improve the long-term strength of expansive soil. Finally, microstructure analysis reveals that the addition of CKD reduces the montmorillonite content of expansive soil and decreases its swelling properties. The addition of CKD also changes the pore volume distribution, both the size and amount of macro-pores and micro-pores decrease with increase in CKD content. For saturated samples, the size of macro-pores is obviously reduced, while that of micro-pores is slightly increased for both treated and untreated soils. Hydration and saturation processes make the soil structure become dispersive which results in a lower strength, and adding CKD can restrain this process. The suggested optimal CKD content is between 10 and 14% and with a curing time of more than 27 days.  相似文献   

Laboratory investigations of inert gas flow behaviors in compact sandstone     

Chaojun Jia  Weiya Xu  Huanling Wang  Wei Wang  Jun Yu  Zhinan Lin 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(6):245

The seepage evolution behavior of compact rock is significant for the stability and safety of many engineering applications. In this research, both hydrostatic and triaxial compression tests were conducted on compact sandstone using an inert gas, namely argon. A triaxial compression test with a water permeability measurement was carried out to study the difference between the gas permeability and water permeability evolutions during the complete stress–strain process. Based on the experimental data, the hydrostatic stress-dependent gas permeability was discussed firstly. A second-order function was proposed to predict and explain the gas slippage effect. The mechanical properties and crack development of the sandstone samples were discussed to better understand the permeability evolution with crack growth during the complete stress–strain process. The results show that the gas permeability evolution can be divided into five stages according to the different crack growth stages. Then, the permeability changes in the crack closure stress \( \sigma_{\text{cc}} \), crack initiation stress \( \sigma_{\text{ci}} \), crack damage stress \( \sigma_{\text{cd}} \) and peak stress \( \sigma_{\text{p}} \) with confining pressures were analyzed. Finally, we found that the difference between the corrected gas permeability and water permeability can be attributed to the interaction between the water and sandstone grains.  相似文献   

百色气候变化特征及城市适应策略建议     

何洁琳  陆甲  李艳兰  谢敏  黄卓  周美丽  黄雪松  秦川 《气象研究与应用》2019,(1):34-37

利用气候观测数据分析表明,近60a来,百色出现了与全球气候变化背景一致的增暖变化,主要变化特征有:气温明显升高,年降水日数减少,冬季降水量增多,年日照时数减少;高温和干旱频率高,20世纪90年代以来暴雨日数偏多。与广西平均气候变化状况相比,百色的气候变化程度风险低于广西平均水平。预估到本世纪中期,百色气温仍将缓慢升高,干旱和强降水的强度可能加剧。建议科学规划,统筹协调,科学评估城市气候承载力,开展城市适应气候变化风险管理,提升生态气候环境监测及自然灾害预警应急能力,建设生态气候宜居城市。  相似文献   

高分遥感技术在西昆仑大红柳滩-俘虏沟地区地质找矿中的应用          下载免费PDF全文

王辉  秦绪文  范玉海  杨金中  金谋顺  张少鹏  廖友运  杨晨  崔胜  贺小龙  匡经水  郭鹏程 《中国地质》2018,45(6):1289-1301

在西昆仑大红柳滩-俘虏沟地区,以WorldView-2高空间分辨率数据为主要信息源,在标准影像图制作基础上,针对性地进行图像增强处理,突出相关控矿要素和矿化信息,开展地质矿产遥感解译;利用ASTER数据开展矿化蚀变有关的遥感异常信息提取,配合适量的野外调查验证,发现了4种极具找矿前景的矿化带类型：①大红柳滩（含稀有金属）花岗伟晶岩带1处;②大红柳滩层控型铁多金属矿化带1处;③俘虏沟燕山期花岗岩有关热液脉型铁、铅、银、铜矿化区1处;④俘虏沟层控型含铜铅锌银的菱铁-赤铁矿矿化带4处;通过遥感综合分析,圈定遥感找矿靶区11处,其中A级遥感找矿靶区5处、B级遥感找矿靶区3处、C级遥感找矿靶区3处,为后续区域地质矿产调查项目规划部署和矿产资源勘查评价提供依据。因此,高分遥感技术在西昆仑地区矿产地质综合调查中作用显著,可实现找矿工作的快速突破,值得在相同或类似区域进一步推广应用。  相似文献   

Advances and Issues in Luminescence Dating of Loess Deposits in Arid Central Asia   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Leibin Wang  Haitao Wei  Jia Jia  Guoqiang Li  Fahu Chen 《地球科学进展》2018,33(1):93-102

High-resolution loess deposits are widely distributed in Arid Central Asia (ACA) and provide important records associated with dust transportation, paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic evolution. The chronology is the foundation of the research into loess deposits as an environmental archive. In recent decades, the gradually developed optical dating method has been increasingly matured and become an important approach to establishing the loess-paleosol sequences. Here, we summarized and discussed previous work on loess chronology mainly based on optical dating approach in ACA. The following understandings have been listed: ① In comparison with optical dating method, the suitable material for ¹⁴C dating is uncommon in ACA. However, the dating range of luminescence dating is more extensive, and the dating materials are accessible. Thus, the optical dating is widely applicable in the establishment of loess framework in this area. ② Until now, the quartz Single Aliquot Regeneration (SAR) method can be applied to the establishment of loess-paleosol sequence since last glacial period. But several issues remain unaddressed. For example, the Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) signal sensitivity of quartz grains are low in some areas. Furthermore, the results of OSL dating of different grain sizes within a single sample are inconsistent in some areas. The solution of these problems still requires more methodological research. ③ The post-IR IRSL (pIRIR) and multiple elevated temperature stimulation (MET-pIRIR) protoCols of feldspar have basically overcome the anomalous fading issue in the traditional IRSL dating process. In ACA, the framework since MIS 7 can be established with K-feldspar luminescence dating method. Compared with quartz luminescence characteristics, the K-feldspar luminescence signals are more sensitive and exhibit a high saturation level. In specific applications, it is necessary to establish the age frame according to the luminescence sensitivity, the age of samples or other factors.  相似文献